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I am accustomed to rereading the classic writings of the great teachers of the Economy, not only as a hobby, but also as a requirement of my profession. I use the term classic here not with the meaning of old, but as that which, independently from the moment in which it was carried out or written, transcends historical time to become, for its stroke of genius, capacity for analysis and precision, a source of continuous inspiration for all later times.
While carrying out one of those habitual readings, by chance I found some incisive and clarifying comments that, before the avalanche of worrying news lately in Spain, concentrated on the world of public as well as private easy business. I have not been able to resist the temptation to transcribe them so that we all examine our consciences on the repercussions that such behaviour can cause on the credibility and strengthening of the general economic system.
It is John Maynard Keynes's crucial work, not exactly classifiable as liberal, entitled The General Theory of Occupation, Interest and Money. First published in 1936 I believe I am not exaggerating if I affirm that its ideas, for good or for bad, have been by far the most influential in the political-economical practice of all the countries of the Western world since then.
Chapter 12 is entitled "The State of Long Term Expectation" where it is explained that the confidential state is a matter to which practical men devote their closed and most concerned attention, being one of the main factors that determine the marginal efficiency of capital that is the same as the demand curve of investment.
Later on he distinguishes between entrepreneurship and speculation. The word company or entrepreneurship is reserved for the task of foreseeing the probable yields of goods for the time that they last. Speculation on the other hand is when somebody that buys an investment is pinning their hopes, not so much on its probable yield, as on a favourable change in the conventional bases of valuation. As organization of the investment markets improves, Keynes also comments, the risk of speculation prevalence increases.
After defining these concepts, we can already textually quote that written by Keynes more than 56 years ago: "The real and individual object of most experts' investments, nowadays, is "to beat the gun" as the North Americans say; to be cleverer than the masse, and palm off false currency or what is depreciating onto another person." (p. 142)
To conclude, on page 145 of the tenth reprint of the second edition in Spanish, published by the Fund for Economic Culture, one can read:"Speculators cannot do any damage when they are only bubbles in a firm current of company spirit; but the situation is serious when the company becomes a bubble within a whirlpool of speculation. When the development of capital in a country becomes a by-product of activities characteristic of a casino, it is likely that that is being poorly carried out."
Launched into the great challenge of competitiveness and convergence towards full integration in the European Economic and Monetary Union, no comments are necessary.
Joseph John Franch Menéu
El Mundo, Tuesday March 3rd 1992
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